Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:58:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B9 0xb977…aa8e other 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,186 (-1%) realized −$1,186 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate20%29W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,466per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$18
14 days−$12
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$149
politics 37% −$102
sports 9% −$966
culture 2% −$7
tech 2% −$2
world 2% −$2
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 +2.9% -6.9% 15% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 109 -8.3% -17.0% 10% 6% -10.7%
all 146 +2.2% -7.5% 20% 12% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 12% -10.0%
10% -16.4% 12% -18.7%
15% -24.5% 11% -26.5%
20% -31.9% 10% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,641) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$25 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,186
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses29 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)146 / 146
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,466
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 146 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3,244 −$5 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $3,251 −$5 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,611 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $4,902 −$6 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $1,599 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $342 +$4 +1%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5,879 −$7 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,864 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,228 −$5 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $4,704 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,135 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,783 −$4 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $86 −$86 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $71 +$118 +165%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,228 −$2 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $1,425 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,065 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,448 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $465 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $637 +$2 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $8,107 −$8 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $2,367 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $1,062 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,063 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,082 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $8,200 −$9 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,042 −$2 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $43 +$58 +134%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,268 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,736 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,640 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $1,647 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $1,630 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,342 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $2,789 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,641 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,942 −$4 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 06 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,507 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,609 1h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,612 2h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,595 24h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,597 26h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,608 2d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,611 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,626 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,629 2d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,597 2d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,599 3d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,629 3d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,632 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $342 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,599 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,601 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,621 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,623 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,594 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,596 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,603 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,605 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,590 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,592 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,630 9d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,632 9d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,654 10d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,226 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,228 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 61¢ $86 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 469 history records