Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb979…0978 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$76 (-15%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$41
14 days−$41
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$52
other 25% −$22
sports 8% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +19.8% +8.4% 43% 30% -18.4%
≤30d 30 +19.8% +8.4% 43% 30% -18.4%
≤90d 30 +19.8% +8.4% 43% 30% -18.4%
all 32 +17.4% +6.2% 44% 28% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.2% 28% -21.6%
10% -3.9% 19% -29.1%
15% -13.2% 16% -35.9%
20% -21.7% 12% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +91% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage171d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $3 $0 -8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +8%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $8 −$4 -53%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 $0 -3%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $31 −$3 -11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 7AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$9 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 −$9 -62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 −$11 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$4 +15%
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 26 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$6 +11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $28 +$7 +26%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$4 +77%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +9%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 AND Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will Br Jun 25 $4 +$6 +140%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AN Jun 25 $1 +$13 +1217%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 6AM ET Jan 13 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 8AM ET Jan 07 $64 −$25 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 3h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 3h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 3h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 3h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 4h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 4h
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $27 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $28 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records