trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 33% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -5.9% | -14.9% | 40% | 7% | -9.8% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -5.6% | -14.6% | 38% | 6% | -9.8% |
| all | 25 | -7.8% | -16.6% | 40% | 4% | -11.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.6% | 4% | -11.2% |
| 10% | -24.6% | 0% | -19.7% |
| 15% | -31.8% | 0% | -27.5% |
| 20% | -38.5% | 0% | -34.6% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $83 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 27 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 26 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 26 | $2 | $0 | +12% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 26 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 25 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 24 | $24 | +$1 | +6% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 24 | $15 | −$1 | -10% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 24 | $41 | $0 | -0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 23 | $47 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 23 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 21 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 20 | $75 | −$3 | -3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 18 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? | May 20 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect | Apr 14 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 14 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? | Apr 11 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? | Apr 07 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $330b and $340b on March 31? | Mar 25 | $12 | −$1 | -9% |
| Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Mar 21 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Feb 27 | $12 | $0 | +2% |