Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:09:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B9 0xb97b…d261 crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 502d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%45W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$6
crypto 11% +$1
tech 2% $0
politics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 56 +0.1% -9.4% 80% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

502d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses45 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage502d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? Apr 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 04 $58 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? Nov 04 $36 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? Oct 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Sep 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 04 $43 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? Jul 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $14 before June? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 10 $5,953 −$6 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 05 $14 $0 +1%
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio Apr 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Yuki Tsunoda be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Cale Makar win the Hart Trophy? Apr 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jaxson Dart be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will the People's Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election Mar 24 $67 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $71 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $28 30d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $57 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $25 62d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $41 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $37 91d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $38 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $6 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 121d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $60 122d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $6 152d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 152d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $43 152d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $26 182d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $38 183d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $58 212d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 100¢ $27 242d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? BUY No 99¢ $36 242d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 272d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $23 272d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? BUY No 100¢ $47 274d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $12 302d
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? BUY No 100¢ $59 303d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $29 334d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 99¢ $43 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 363d
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $32 367d
XRP all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 395d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 396d
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.09 · official $71.09 (match) · 115 history records