Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb97d…dc46 politics 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%7W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% $0
world 31% −$5
other 23% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -1.2% -10.6% 14% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 7 -1.2% -10.6% 14% 0% -10.9%
all 32 -0.4% -9.9% 22% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses7 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage307d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $41 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $38 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $84 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $61 −$5 -8%
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in August? Aug 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on August 15? Aug 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 14 $48 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $38 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $13 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 3h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $41 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $41 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $38 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $4 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $42 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $42 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $42 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $32 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $38 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $7 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $35 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $42 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $31 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $15 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $16 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $25 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $5 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $25 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $33 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 73¢ $9 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $42 25d
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $10 303d
Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in August? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 304d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $1 304d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $38 304d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.59 · official $37.59 (match) · 100 history records