Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb97e…262b sports 613 markets active 0h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,133 (+2%) realized +$1,133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%302W / 311L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$833est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$216
7 days+$213
14 days+$404
30 days+$627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$2,756
other 2% −$1,292
politics 2% −$1,258
world 0% +$7
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -17.7% -25.5% 35% 30% -3.4%
≤30d 90 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 46% -4.1%
≤90d 514 -15.0% -23.1% 44% 38% -17.1%
all 613 -2.9% -12.1% 49% 45% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 45% -8.6%
10% -20.5% 36% -17.4%
15% -28.2% 29% -25.4%
20% -35.3% 23% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$51 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses302 / 311
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$833
Open positions0
Markets (closed)613 / 613
History coverage609d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 613 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $515 −$126 -24%
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30? Jun 19 $22 −$17 -78%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $698 +$62 +9%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $129 −$45 -35%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $485 +$404 +83%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $149 +$282 +189%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $231 −$89 -38%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $241 +$54 +22%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $62 −$29 -46%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $61 −$16 -26%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $99 −$98 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $119 +$22 +18%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $191 −$188 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $74 −$23 -31%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $361 −$7 -2%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$4 -19%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $25 +$12 +47%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -71%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team Bald (BO1) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $101 +$47 +46%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$45 -44%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $912 +$357 +39%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $397 +$159 +40%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $409 −$343 -84%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $126 −$123 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $40 −$14 -35%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $232 +$59 +25%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $201 +$142 +70%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $304 −$219 -72%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $248 +$380 +153%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $297 −$107 -36%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $140 +$66 +47%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $246 −$10 -4%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $429 −$421 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $26 +$24 +93%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 03 $67 +$39 +59%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $101 +$117 +117%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $342 +$160 +47%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $22 +$30 +134%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $283 +$89 +32%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $166 −$163 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 2 Winner May 30 $37 −$36 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $92 +$114 +124%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 1 Winner May 30 $10 −$3 -28%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $26 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $75 +$25 +34%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $36 −$36 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $36 $0 -1%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $24 +$12 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 41¢ $72 0m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 60¢ $109 7m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 35¢ $70 10m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 57¢ $117 13m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 61¢ $117 15m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 53¢ $104 28m
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 57m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 95¢ $91 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 95¢ $409 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL PlayTime 3¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 72¢ $100 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 69¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 84¢ $80 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 87¢ $130 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL PlayTime 13¢ $11 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 34¢ $33 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 83¢ $126 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 80¢ $111 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 79¢ $12 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL PlayTime 47¢ $130 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 65¢ $184 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 28¢ $85 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 41¢ $129 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 61¢ $123 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 64¢ $131 2h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am SELL Estar Backs 84¢ $500 7h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am SELL Estar Backs 68¢ $335 7h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 15¢ $60 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 26¢ $13 8h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 15¢ $26 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3050 history records