Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb97f…8648 weather 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100 (-2%) realized −$99 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate74%37W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 60% −$202
sports 39% +$94
other 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 33 -9.6% -18.2% 73% 45% -10.6%
≤90d 41 -10.3% -18.8% 73% 41% -16.3%
all 50 -10.3% -18.8% 74% 34% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 34% -11.8%
10% -26.6% 10% -20.2%
15% -33.7% 6% -27.9%
20% -40.2% 2% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$41 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$99
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses37 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage148d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24? No 97¢ 95¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $12 +$4 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $102 −$95 -93%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $51 −$27 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $51 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $151 +$21 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $50 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $16 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $101 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $51 −$35 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $101 +$20 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 +$7 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $151 +$28 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $127 +$76 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 −$32 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $42 −$38 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $50 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 11? May 11 $48 +$16 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on April 30? Apr 30 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 3? Apr 03 $200 −$178 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 3? Apr 03 $201 +$13 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 29? Mar 29 $54 −$44 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on March 28? Mar 29 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 27? Mar 27 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 22? Mar 27 $43 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 11? Mar 11 $11 −$4 -37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11? Mar 11 $45 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 4? Mar 11 $41 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on Febr Mar 04 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 14? Feb 17 $12 $0 +3%
Suns vs. Trail Blazers Feb 04 $994 +$5 +0%
Lakers vs. Nets Feb 04 $910 +$89 +10%
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 03 $14 −$12 -90%
Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch? Feb 01 $13 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $110 14d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $106 14d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? BUY No 91¢ $100 14d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? BUY No 93¢ $50 15d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? BUY No 95¢ $50 15d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $113 15d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $16 15d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 9? BUY No 88¢ $50 15d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 9? BUY No 89¢ $50 15d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 9? BUY No 72¢ $12 15d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? SELL No 5¢ $7 15d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? SELL No 38¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? SELL No 36¢ $23 15d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? BUY No 73¢ $51 15d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $110 15d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? BUY No 71¢ $51 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $63 16d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? BUY No 63¢ $51 16d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $52 16d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8? BUY No 91¢ $100 16d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 8? BUY No 96¢ $50 16d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 8? SELL No 99¢ $58 16d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 8? BUY No 90¢ $50 16d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 8? BUY No 85¢ $50 16d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 8? BUY No 80¢ $51 16d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 7? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 16d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $172 16d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $55 16d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 7? BUY No 91¢ $50 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.30 · official $32.30 (match) · 114 history records