Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:33:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B9 0xb983…8d71 crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$173 (-4%) realized −$173 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%31W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$184
other 29% −$2
politics 17% +$2
crypto 13% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 3 +1.7% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 9 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.0%
all 57 -1.6% -11.0% 54% 4% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -13.5%
10% -19.5% 2% -21.7%
15% -27.3% 2% -29.3%
20% -34.4% 2% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses31 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage620d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 1-7? Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Jun 02 $29 +$1 +3%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 19 $11 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 19 $17 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Apr 27 $12 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 27 $16 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $120 in February? Mar 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 28 $16 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 26 $12 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 28 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 28 $15 $0 +1%
Heat vs. 76ers Nov 23 $182 −$182 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 23 $14 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 23 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? Oct 27 $8 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? Oct 27 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 28 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 25 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? Jun 29 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 27 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 27 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 24 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $6 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 18 $12 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 09 $6 −$1 -13%
Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 14 $7 +$1 +18%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Jaguars win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $27 $0 -1%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $23 $0 -1%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $5 +$3 +54%
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? Oct 20 $482 $0 -0%
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? Oct 20 $480 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win Michigan Presidential Election Oct 20 $488 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 20 $481 −$1 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 20 $483 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 20 $485 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win Ohio US Senate Election? Oct 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 1-7? BUY No 99¢ $30 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? BUY No 97¢ $29 22d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? BUY No 98¢ $11 53d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $17 53d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? BUY No 98¢ $12 83d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $16 83d
Will Solana reach $120 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 113d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 99¢ $16 113d
Will Solana reach $150 in January? BUY No 98¢ $12 142d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 98¢ $15 142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $15 173d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $12 173d
Heat vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 52¢ $182 208d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 97¢ $14 235d
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? BUY No 97¢ $18 235d
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? BUY No 98¢ $8 264d
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? BUY No 97¢ $23 264d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 96¢ $29 298d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 98¢ $29 329d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 355d
Will Solana reach $210 in May? BUY No 96¢ $28 388d
Will Solana reach $210 in April? BUY No 99¢ $12 421d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 98¢ $15 421d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $16 458d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $11 458d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $6 458d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY No 98¢ $12 495d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $8 495d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.20 · official $30.20 (match) · 142 history records