Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:40:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb986…dbad weather 520 markets active 5d ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$120 (-0%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate88%457W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days−$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$138
world 0% +$1
other 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$4
politics 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +1.6% -8.1% 89% 4% -8.6%
≤30d 227 -2.8% -12.0% 87% 4% -13.2%
≤90d 509 -0.2% -9.7% 88% 5% -10.1%
all 520 -0.3% -9.8% 88% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 5% -10.0%
10% -18.4% 2% -18.7%
15% -26.3% 1% -26.5%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses457 / 63
Open positions0
Markets (closed)520 / 520
History coverage94d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 520 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $23 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $19 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? Jun 09 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 8? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 8? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 5? Jun 08 $10 −$5 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $24 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 95¢ $19 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $19 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $18 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $19 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $23 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $24 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $24 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $13 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $19 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 97¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 96¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $17 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $32 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $19 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? SELL No 97¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? SELL No 98¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? SELL No 98¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1922 history records