Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:12:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B9 0xb986…f0bb crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$183 (-16%) realized −$180 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$35
14 days−$35
30 days−$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$225
other 38% −$2
world 1% −$5
sports 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-47.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 15 -48.9% -53.7% 40% 20% -48.2%
≤90d 15 -48.9% -53.7% 40% 20% -48.2%
all 24 -41.4% -47.0% 46% 21% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.0% 21% -29.6%
10% -52.1% 17% -36.4%
15% -56.7% 8% -42.5%
20% -60.9% 8% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$21 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$180
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage132d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $110 $107 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 06 $30 −$23 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 04 $30 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 03 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 02 $8 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 02 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 02 $101 +$10 +10%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 01 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 31 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 31 $116 −$110 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 31 $5 $0 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey bronze medal at the 2026 Winter Feb 22 $318 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Feb 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Feb 12 $12 +$12 +102%
Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 11 $135 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 11 $20 +$7 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $113 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $8 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $26 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $32 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $14 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.49 · official $107.49 (match) · 69 history records