Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B9 0xb98b…9417 world 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 347d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+1%) realized +$49 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 34L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$27
14 days+$39
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$39
sports 31% +$5
other 17% +$2
politics 8% +$1
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.5% -8.2% 33% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 29 +1.0% -8.6% 45% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 37 +0.8% -8.8% 41% 0% -8.9%
all 52 -1.3% -10.7% 35% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.0%
10% -19.3% 0% -17.7%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.2% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×5.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.89 per $1 lost it wins $5.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage347d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $135 $134 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $137 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $137 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $99 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $130 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $403 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $87 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $285 +$15 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $148 +$14 +10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $92 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $113 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $111 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $62 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $229 +$7 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $14 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $134 +$4 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $108 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $300 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $108 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $111 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $133 +$6 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $104 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $107 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $125 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $26 −$2 -7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 22 $96 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $2 $0 +8%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $324 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $72 +$1 +2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $606 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $626 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $108 −$1 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $668 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $602 +$6 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto finish in 4th place at the 2025 F1 British Gran Aug 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $147 +$1 +1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $149 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $135 $0 +0%
Will Alex de Minaur win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 06 $150 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $135 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $48 4h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $28 4h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $59 4h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $20 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $58 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $58 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $137 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $72 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $65 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $36 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $17 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $14 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $33 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $99 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $130 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $130 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $8 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $13 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $86 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $108 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $87 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $87 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $22 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $25 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $65 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $25 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $51 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $125 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.10 · official $134.32 (match) · 266 history records