Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb98b…a6e4 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,172 (-20%) realized −$1,171 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,185
7 days−$872
14 days−$872
30 days−$872
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$1,834
world 8% +$40
sports 7% +$617
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +33.0% +20.3% 57% 50% -25.3%
≤30d 14 +33.0% +20.3% 57% 50% -25.3%
≤90d 14 +33.0% +20.3% 57% 50% -25.3%
all 15 +24.1% +12.3% 53% 47% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.3% 47% -29.6%
10% +1.6% 47% -36.4%
15% -8.2% 40% -42.5%
20% -17.2% 40% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$230 vs −$503 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$1,171
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage186d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $67 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $90 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,185 −$1,185 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,440 −$1,440 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $350 +$650 +186%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $180 +$320 +178%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $565 +$370 +66%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $60 +$15 +25%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $460 +$40 +9%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $142 −$9 -6%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 +$25 +104%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 +$125 +62%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $202 +$298 +147%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Daylight $50M pre-deposit vault filled in 15 minutes? Dec 16 $304 −$304 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $69 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $374 21h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $90 44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $29 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $1 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $3 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $0 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $1 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $1 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $19 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $13 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $28 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $7 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $3 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $32 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $3 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $2 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $3 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $2 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $3 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $0 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $5 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $11 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $25 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $3 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $3 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.30 · official $80.30 (match) · 142 history records