Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb98d…5a68 other 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$137 (+6%) realized +$221 · open −$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%13W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$168
7 days−$182
14 days−$275
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$5
sports 7% −$33
weather 4% −$54
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +8.9% -1.5% 13% 13% -41.9%
≤30d 60 +36.7% +23.6% 18% 18% +2.1%
≤90d 84 +8.4% -1.9% 15% 15% -9.6%
all 84 +8.4% -1.9% 15% 15% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 15% -9.6%
10% -11.3% 15% -18.2%
15% -19.9% 15% -26.1%
20% -27.7% 14% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$14 · ×5.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$221
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses13 / 71
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)84 / 88
History coverage43d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 13¢ 5¢ $120 $49 −$71 (-59%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-86%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 29? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? Jun 29 $366 −$135 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $72 −$19 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $13 −$12 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 26 $6 +$4 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $3 +$10 +306%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on June 23? Jun 23 $6 −$2 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? Jun 22 $14 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 23? Jun 22 $7 −$4 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 +$5 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $113 −$58 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $154 −$33 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $16 −$11 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$33 +319%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $8 −$5 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $12 −$8 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $40 +$353 +888%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $11 +$9 +78%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $134 +$148 +110%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $18 −$17 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $189 +$114 +60%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $197 −$190 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 7? Jun 06 $6 −$1 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $94 38m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $231 39m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $36 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $52 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $53 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $72 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $188 3h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $178 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 29? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 29? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 7h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 7h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $8 7h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $68 27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 42h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 42h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 42h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 44h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.93 · official $51.88 (match) · 303 history records