Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:22:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B9 0xb98e…ecee crypto 200 markets active 0h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$854 (-4%) realized −$848 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%81W / 118L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$121
14 days−$121
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$1,630
other 24% −$1,032
world 14% +$1,026
culture 8% +$608
politics 3% −$147
finance 2% −$74
sports 2% −$31
tech 1% −$43
economics 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -34.5% -40.8% 27% 9% -37.5%
≤30d 11 -34.5% -40.8% 27% 9% -37.5%
≤90d 82 -7.6% -16.4% 35% 24% -28.5%
all 199 -6.1% -15.1% 41% 33% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 33% -15.4%
10% -23.2% 26% -23.5%
15% -30.6% 22% -30.9%
20% -37.4% 19% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$53 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$848
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses81 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)199 / 200
History coverage288d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $74 $68 −$6 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $45 −$12 -27%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $20 $0 +2%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $25 +$2 +7%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $20 −$2 -10%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $104 −$21 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$22 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $92 −$30 -33%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 19 $100 −$27 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 22 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 22 $5 +$6 +106%
ITF Wuning: Patcharin Cheapchandej vs Yidi Yang May 22 $197 −$45 -23%
ITF Gimcheon: Tai Leonard Sach vs Sora Fukuda May 22 $50 +$13 +26%
ITF Luan: Jie Cui vs Qian Sun May 22 $20 −$20 -99%
ITF Gimcheon: Dong Ju Kim vs Keisuke Saitoh May 22 $10 −$9 -98%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $25 +$15 +58%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $96 +$15 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 21 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 21 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 21 $10 +$6 +61%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 21 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 21 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 21 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 16 $318 −$304 -96%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? May 16 $207 −$66 -32%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 16 $206 −$43 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 16 $40 +$30 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 16 $25 +$36 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 16 $769 −$750 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 15 $21 +$29 +139%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $250 −$250 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 11 $314 −$31 -10%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $415 −$52 -12%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 11 $1,532 +$139 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $400 −$25 -6%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 10 $721 +$133 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 10 $300 −$7 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 10 $100 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 10 $100 −$9 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 10 $208 −$45 -22%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 09 $207 −$131 -63%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $103 +$1,423 +1382%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $54 25m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 27m
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 13¢ $33 32m
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $45 52m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 63¢ $20 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $27 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $18 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 62¢ $20 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $82 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $31 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes $73 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $32 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $11 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up $5 30d
ITF Wuning: Patcharin Cheapchandej vs Yidi Yang SELL Patcharin Cheapchandej 24¢ $22 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.31 · official $67.42 (match) · 476 history records