Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb990…419d crypto 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$87 (+6%) realized +$90 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate65%90W / 48L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day84.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$36
sports 5% −$9
other 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 -2.8% -12.0% 65% 51% -7.9%
≤30d 138 -2.8% -12.0% 65% 51% -7.9%
≤90d 138 -2.8% -12.0% 65% 51% -7.9%
all 138 -2.8% -12.0% 65% 51% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 51% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 36% -16.7%
15% -28.1% 25% -24.8%
20% -35.2% 12% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$90
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses90 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)138 / 142
History coverage4d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day84.6
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 42¢ 33¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-21%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $56 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$9 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +22%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? Jun 28 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $102 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $130 −$12 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $12 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.16 · official $17.16 (match) · 378 history records