Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:24:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb990…1a3a other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$716 (-78%) realized −$711 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -87% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -88% what you keep after slip
Net edge-88%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$70
14 days−$285
30 days−$546
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$672
sports 16% −$18
world 2% −$17
politics 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-88.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 13 -80.1% -82.0% 8% 8% -98.3%
≤90d 14 -81.5% -83.3% 7% 7% -98.3%
all 36 -86.8% -88.1% 3% 3% -95.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -88.1% 3% -95.5%
10% -89.2% 3% -95.9%
15% -90.3% 3% -96.3%
20% -91.2% 3% -96.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -98% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -87% · $-wt -95% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -90% → late -83% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$21 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$711
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 35
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage323d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage EYEBALLERS 32¢ 30¢ $98 $93 −$5 (-5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $220 −$214 -97%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $135 −$131 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4 +$6 +158%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $54 −$53 -97%
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $20 −$19 -97%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $46 −$45 -97%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 13 $51 −$25 -50%
Will PARIVISION win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will M80 win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Astralis win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Nov 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will GamerLegion win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Nov 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will FlyQuest win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Nov 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will NRG win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Nov 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will B8 win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Nov 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will The MongolZ win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Nov 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will HEROIC win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Nigma Galaxy win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will M80 win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? Sep 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 8–August 15? Aug 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Virtus.pro win the BLAST Bounty 2025 Season tournament? Aug 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Aurora win the BLAST Bounty 2025 Season tournament? Aug 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Aug 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 11 $7 −$1 -17%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August? Aug 11 $5 $0 -6%
Will Astralis win the BLAST Bounty 2025 Season tournament? Aug 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31? Aug 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 35h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 35h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 38h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Ar BUY 10¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? AND Will Norway vs. France end in BUY 3¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage BUY EYEBALLERS 32¢ $100 3d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $47 8d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 9d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $50 9d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 14d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 14d
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $4 15d
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 15d
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $14 15d
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 15d
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 15d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 17d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 17d
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 17d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 18d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 18d
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 18d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 18d
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 19d
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 20d
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.41 · official $122.41 (match) · 87 history records