Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:41:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B9 0xb99d…e4e5 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$226 (+11%) realized +$263 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%20W / 14L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$173
sports 48% −$18
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -14.8% -23.0% 56% 56% -10.4%
≤30d 24 -14.3% -22.5% 54% 54% -5.2%
≤90d 34 -1.4% -10.8% 59% 59% +1.0%
all 34 -1.4% -10.8% 59% 59% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 59% +1.0%
10% -19.3% 53% -8.7%
15% -27.1% 47% -17.5%
20% -34.3% 26% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$35 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized+$263
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses20 / 14
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions6
Markets (closed)34 / 40
History coverage54d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Korea Republic 77¢ 78¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $75 $66 −$9 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 46¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-29%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $52 +$18 +34%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 +$19 +36%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $52 +$19 +37%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $52 +$20 +38%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $52 +$18 +34%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $52 +$8 +15%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $53 −$5 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $53 +$54 +102%
United States vs. Paraguay: Team to Take First Corner Jun 13 $53 +$24 +46%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $105 +$67 +64%
Will Singapore win on 2026-06-05? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $52 +$19 +36%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $158 +$101 +64%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $53 +$47 +90%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $53 +$37 +70%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $105 +$58 +55%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing May 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 17 $25 +$11 +44%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 11 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 11 $26 +$58 +226%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $31 +$41 +134%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $40 +$15 +38%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $50 +$41 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 77¢ $84 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $53 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $53 35h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $52 41h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $53 41h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $52 47h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $53 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $52 4d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 4d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 70¢ $52 4d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $52 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $53 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $52 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $47 5d
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $53 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $53 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: Team to Take First Corner BUY United States 65¢ $53 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $105 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $52 8d
Will Singapore win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $53 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $53 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $105 19d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $53 19d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $53 22d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $37 25d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $53 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $258.05 · official $258.05 (match) · 117 history records