Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:03:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9a2…8516 politics 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%4W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$2
sports 18% $0
other 12% $0
tech 6% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 21 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses4 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage173d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $97 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $97 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $97 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 17 $98 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $197 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 18 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $197 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $197 $0 +0%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 10 $197 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 03 $197 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 26 $197 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 06 $197 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 02 $192 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $193 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $188 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $191 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 01 $191 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $96 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $97 12h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $97 17d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $97 17d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $97 25d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $97 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $97 33d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $97 33d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $97 36d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $97 36d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $97 39d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $97 39d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $98 65d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $98 65d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $197 87d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $197 87d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $197 95d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $197 95d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $197 97d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $13 98d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $7 98d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $5 98d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $8 98d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $165 98d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $197 99d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $197 99d
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 100¢ $197 102d
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 100¢ $197 102d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $197 109d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $197 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records