Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:09:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B9 0xb9a4…8c04 crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$174 (+0%) realized +$183 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%33W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,081per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$31
14 days+$58
30 days+$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 24 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 29 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 44 +0.1% -9.4% 75% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$4,211) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$4,356
Realized+$183
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses33 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage237d
Avg bet$2,081
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $4,365 $4,356 −$9 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $4,362 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $3,170 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,182 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $780 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $824 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,339 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2,000 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2,335 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $4,327 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $4,323 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $4,308 +$15 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $427 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $3,874 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $4,285 +$15 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? May 30 $1,418 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 30? May 30 $860 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 30? May 30 $4,263 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 29? May 29 $2,272 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 28? May 28 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27? May 27 $2,269 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 26? May 26 $4,261 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? May 24 $4,240 +$20 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? May 20 $4,226 +$15 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $4,219 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? May 17 $4,211 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15? May 15 $4,203 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 12? May 12 $4,199 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 11? Nov 12 $552 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 9? Nov 10 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 8? Nov 09 $550 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 7? Nov 08 $550 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 6? Nov 07 $550 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 5? Nov 06 $550 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 4? Nov 05 $550 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 3? Nov 04 $550 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 2? Nov 03 $550 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 1? Nov 02 $550 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 31? Nov 01 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 30? Oct 31 $550 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 29? Oct 30 $550 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 28? Oct 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 27? Oct 28 $550 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,584 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $81 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $700 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,001 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,362 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,182 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $3,170 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $824 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $400 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $700 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,339 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,335 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $600 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $600 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $800 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,327 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $4,323 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $4,308 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $3,874 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $27 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $400 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,275 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $860 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $18 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,400 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,992 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,355.75 · official $4,355.75 (match) · 102 history records