Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:33:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B9 0xb9a8…7df4 sports 231 markets active 5h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$446 (+4%) realized +$423 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%106W / 103L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$511now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$1
14 days+$244
30 days+$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$502
world 14% +$16
politics 8% −$126
other 1% +$33
tech 0% −$21
finance 0% +$11
crypto 0% +$11
economics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -1.6% -11.0% 67% 47% -9.5%
≤30d 89 +24.9% +13.0% 55% 48% -4.1%
≤90d 209 +10.5% -0.0% 51% 45% -5.6%
all 209 +10.5% -0.0% 51% 45% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.0% 45% -5.6%
10% -9.6% 33% -14.6%
15% -18.3% 29% -22.8%
20% -26.3% 24% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$14 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$511
Realized+$423
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses106 / 103
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions4
Markets (closed)209 / 231
History coverage64d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 74¢ 74¢ $456 $459 +$3 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 60¢ 88¢ $24 $35 +$11 (+47%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 76¢ $7 $15 +$8 (+107%)
Will Trump say "Big League" or "Bigly" in June? No 20¢ 87¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+335%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $192 −$192 -100%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $412 +$88 +21%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $133 +$27 +20%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $7 +$1 +15%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $461 +$69 +15%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick” or “Hat Trick" during the Czechia v Jun 25 $102 +$5 +4%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Worl Jun 25 $203 +$10 +5%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $11 $0 -5%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIF Jun 25 $22 +$23 +106%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U Jun 25 $1 $0 -20%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $399 +$100 +25%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $174 +$56 +32%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $414 −$180 -44%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $545 $0 +0%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl Jun 20 $126 +$80 +64%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Wor Jun 20 $76 +$13 +17%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Brazil vs Ha Jun 20 $117 +$21 +18%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Jun 20 $131 +$16 +12%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $19 −$5 -27%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during G7 events? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Jun 20 $4 +$15 +363%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Brazil vs Ha Jun 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 20 $3 −$2 -46%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $2 +$1 +67%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $69 +$9 +13%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the Mexico vs South Korea Jun 19 $5 −$3 -61%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA Jun 18 $14 +$16 +117%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $22 +$14 +66%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $34 +$23 +70%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $26 +$10 +41%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $0 +$4 +1122%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -29%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $14 +$46 +330%
Will the announcers say "Nasty" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the announcers say "Eye poke" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -76%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $27 +$41 +149%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $16 −$7 -44%
Will anyone say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Rick and Mort Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $39 −$10 -25%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Jun 13 $143 +$97 +67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $21 +$20 +97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $24 +$15 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 74¢ $456 5h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND South Africa vs. Canada: South Af BUY 14¢ $10 5h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $192 6h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 83¢ $133 9h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 82¢ $412 9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 AND DR Con BUY $3 9h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-2.5) A BUY $2 21h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Port BUY $1 21h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 87¢ $197 32h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 87¢ $133 32h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 87¢ $130 32h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 87¢ $7 33h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 AND Will E BUY 16¢ $6 45h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Cabo Verde vs. Sa BUY 13¢ $6 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 60¢ $24 46h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 37¢ $7 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Türkiye vs. United States BUY $5 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U SELL 10¢ $1 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U BUY 12¢ $1 3d
Will the announcers say "Hattrick” or “Hat Trick" during the Czechia v BUY No 95¢ $102 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 3d
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Worl BUY No 95¢ $203 3d
Will the announcers say "History" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIF BUY No 48¢ $22 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Switzerland vs. Cana BUY 45¢ $25 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $12 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $387 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $2 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $5 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $87 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $510.87 · official $520.61 · 670 history records