Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B9 0xb9ab…c6b3 other 188 markets active 1h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,513 (+4%) realized +$1,513 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate74%138W / 48L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$900now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$218
7 days+$178
14 days+$693
30 days+$1,508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$665
sports 21% +$799
crypto 0% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.8% -10.3% 88% 50% -4.5%
≤30d 50 +9.3% -1.1% 92% 46% -1.7%
≤90d 161 -0.9% -10.3% 75% 35% -7.0%
all 186 -0.7% -10.2% 74% 36% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 36% -6.6%
10% -18.8% 18% -15.5%
15% -26.6% 8% -23.7%
20% -33.8% 5% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$73 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$900
Realized+$1,513
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses138 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions2
Markets (closed)186 / 188
History coverage216d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 98¢ 97¢ $600 $598 −$2 (-0%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 89¢ 90¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $400 +$15 +4%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $301 +$44 +14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $504 +$148 +29%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $600 +$12 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 −$200 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $302 +$73 +24%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $401 +$45 +11%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $501 +$42 +8%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $301 +$18 +6%
Will Olympic Dcheira win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 +$136 +134%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $301 +$29 +10%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $302 +$70 +23%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 11 $403 +$111 +28%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $402 −$4 -1%
Will Central African Republic win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $401 +$20 +5%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $201 +$28 +14%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 09 $402 +$91 +23%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas Jun 08 $400 +$15 +4%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $128 +$2 +2%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $201 +$20 +10%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $402 +$58 +14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $401 +$60 +15%
Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $200 +$10 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $402 +$54 +14%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $200 +$17 +8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $605 +$244 +40%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $301 +$44 +14%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $401 −$400 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $401 +$34 +8%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $602 +$60 +10%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $301 +$22 +7%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $401 +$38 +9%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $302 +$45 +15%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $201 +$51 +25%
Will Iceland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Degerfors IF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $401 +$53 +13%
Will Vasteraas SK win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $701 +$50 +7%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $302 +$73 +24%
Will Molde FK win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $200 +$10 +5%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $300 +$106 +36%
Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $402 +$74 +18%
Basquet Club Andorra vs. Barcelona May 30 $149 +$81 +54%
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $400 +$12 +3%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Trabzonspor May 26 $200 +$14 +7%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $401 +$53 +13%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $400 +$12 +3%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $401 +$27 +7%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $604 +$170 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $301 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $600 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $400 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 86¢ $652 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 48¢ $203 43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 98¢ $600 47h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $301 47h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 87¢ $301 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 71¢ $202 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $302 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $201 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $201 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $201 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $301 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $301 8d
Will Olympic Dcheira win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 42¢ $102 9d
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife BUY Barcelona 75¢ $101 10d
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife BUY Barcelona 84¢ $201 10d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 91¢ $301 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 85¢ $398 11d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 85¢ $402 11d
Valencia vs. Joventut BUY Valencia 78¢ $201 11d
Valencia vs. Joventut BUY Valencia 78¢ $201 11d
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? SELL No 91¢ $230 12d
Will Central African Republic win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 95¢ $401 12d
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 79¢ $201 13d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Olympiacos B.C. 81¢ $402 13d
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas SELL Besiktas 99¢ $32 13d
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas SELL Besiktas 89¢ $326 13d
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas SELL Bahcesehir Koleji 15¢ $11 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $900.15 · official $900.15 (match) · 473 history records