Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9b2…8e7d sports 279 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$795 (+3%) realized +$1,145 · open −$350
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%112W / 165L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$408est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,045
7 days−$2,556
14 days−$1,864
30 days−$524
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$78
other 4% −$249
crypto 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -59.2% -63.1% 17% 15% -32.0%
≤30d 242 -16.3% -24.3% 36% 32% -11.6%
≤90d 277 -10.9% -19.4% 40% 37% -9.0%
all 277 -10.9% -19.4% 40% 37% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 37% -9.0%
10% -27.1% 34% -17.7%
15% -34.1% 28% -25.7%
20% -40.6% 22% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +40% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$57 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,145
Unrealized−$350
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses112 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$408
Open positions2
Markets (closed)277 / 279
History coverage84d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India India 30¢ 0¢ $223 $0 −$222 (-100%)
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India India 64¢ 0¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 28 $137 +$32 +24%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $319 −$79 -25%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $69 −$49 -71%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $225 −$5 -2%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $284 +$16 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $84 −$44 -52%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $83 −$65 -78%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $18 −$17 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $49 −$32 -65%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $0 $0 -8%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 27 $12 −$7 -61%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Tulsa: Alex Rybakov vs Bruno Kuzuhara Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
ITF Tulsa: Enzo Aguiard vs Blake Ellis Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $26 −$20 -78%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Tanger: Ali Missoum vs Federico Valle Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $140 +$185 +132%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
ITF Asuncion: Emily Zornada vs Luciana Moyano Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India SELL Australia 100¢ $400 7m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India SELL Ireland 100¢ $998 7m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 30¢ $15 50m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 44¢ $21 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 44¢ $1 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 37¢ $32 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 37¢ $17 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 36¢ $34 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 35¢ $9 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 35¢ $18 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY Australia 71¢ $36 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 39¢ $19 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 67¢ $64 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 66¢ $3 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 66¢ $34 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY Australia 65¢ $26 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY Australia 65¢ $7 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 56¢ $28 1h
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 91¢ $46 2h
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 21¢ $5 2h
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 21¢ $5 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 25¢ $13 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY Australia 72¢ $218 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 29¢ $68 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 29¢ $2 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 29¢ $0 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 29¢ $1 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 29¢ $1 2h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 17¢ $70 2h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 9¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.47 · official $0.47 (match) · 1734 history records