Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
B9 0xb9be…663e crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$91 (+5%) realized +$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate54%36W / 31L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day34.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$62
sports 9% +$135
other 3% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +41.0% +27.6% 54% 45% -4.6%
≤30d 67 +41.0% +27.6% 54% 45% -4.6%
≤90d 67 +41.0% +27.6% 54% 45% -4.6%
all 67 +41.0% +27.6% 54% 45% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.6% 45% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here +15.3% 33% -13.7%
15% +4.2% 22% -22.1%
20% -6.0% 21% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +64% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses36 / 31
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage4d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day34.8
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$39 +377%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $10 +$31 +307%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +182%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $20 −$12 -57%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$9 +69%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $25 +$47 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$14 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$18 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$10 +16%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$36 +139%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$28 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$32 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$50 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $111 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $133 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $20 +$44 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$38 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$87 +1683%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 74¢ $49 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $42 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 11h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 26h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 26h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 26h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 26h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $20 26h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 35¢ $51 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $35 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $27 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $23 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $14 30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $73 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $25 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $11 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $35 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $21 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $61 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $79 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records