Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B9 0xb9c1…2848 crypto 30 markets active 4d ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+2%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$23
tech 10% +$15
economics 10% $0
crypto 1% −$5
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +7.5% -2.7% 54% 31% -8.3%
≤30d 29 -1.7% -11.1% 55% 41% -8.3%
≤90d 29 -1.7% -11.1% 55% 41% -8.3%
all 30 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 40% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 40% -8.1%
10% -19.4% 33% -16.9%
15% -27.2% 30% -24.9%
20% -34.4% 23% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage141d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +226%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $23 +$13 +55%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$8 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 13 $200 $0 -0%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $100 −$1 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,014 +$22 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $201 +$15 +7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $22 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 31 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 31 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Wolves (BO9) - Honor of Kings Challen May 23 $1 $0 -46%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $190 +$10 +5%
Zama auction clearing price above $0.03? Jan 26 $200 +$7 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $20 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $13 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $23 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $21 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $100 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $100 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $100 5d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $500 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $500 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $13 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 93¢ $201 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records