Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B9 0xb9c1…bf36 crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate78%39W / 11L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$10
other 24% $0
politics 10% $0
tech 9% $0
sports 6% $0
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 50 +1.0% -8.6% 78% 2% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 2% -8.6%
10% -17.3% 2% -17.4%
15% -25.3% 2% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×5.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.59 per $1 lost it wins $18.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses39 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage500d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? Apr 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 04 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 02 $4 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? Jul 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in May? Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in April? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Silviu Predoiu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Kim Dong-yeon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio Apr 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Milroe be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 08 $23 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $9 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Mar 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will the People's Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election Mar 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy? Mar 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 13 $7 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 by February 28 2025? Mar 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025? Mar 07 $19 +$8 +44%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $49 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $43 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $24 62d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $21 63d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 92d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $9 92d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $34 94d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $22 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $21 123d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 151d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $16 151d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $33 152d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 181d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $35 182d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $39 212d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $12 243d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $25 243d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 272d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $26 274d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $5 301d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $9 301d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $33 303d
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $16 334d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $24 334d
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $11 366d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $4 367d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 394d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 394d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 394d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.43 · official $49.43 (match) · 107 history records