Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:27:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B9 0xb9c3…32a1 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$181 (+22%) realized +$186 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$445now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 174d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$214
other 5% −$12
crypto 4% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-48.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +73.2% +56.7% 100% 100% +56.7%
≤30d 1 +73.2% +56.7% 100% 100% +56.7%
≤90d 1 +73.2% +56.7% 100% 100% +56.7%
all 5 -43.0% -48.5% 40% 40% +33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.5% 40% +33.9%
10% -53.4% 20% +21.1%
15% -57.9% 20% +9.4%
20% -62.0% 20% -1.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +73% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt +48% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$15 · ×7.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.91 per $1 lost it wins $4.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$445
Realized+$186
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage174d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 44¢ 44¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 36¢ 36¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $300 +$220 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 28 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3PM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 30 $24 +$3 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $102 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 36¢ $51 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 36¢ $102 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $203 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $300 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $30 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 143d
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? BUY No 13¢ $15 173d
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? SELL No 100¢ $15 173d
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? BUY No 96¢ $14 173d
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? SELL No 94¢ $12 173d
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? BUY No 77¢ $10 174d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $444.51 · official $444.51 (match) · 13 history records