Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:51:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9c5…a672 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$1
other 30% +$1
crypto 12% $0
politics 11% $0
sports 5% +$1
tech 4% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.0% -8.6% 60% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 55% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 55% 0% -9.3%
all 43 -0.6% -10.0% 51% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 5% -9.3%
10% -18.6% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.5% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage285d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $32 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $68 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $34 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $71 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Feb 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Oct 04 $5 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Oct 02 $5 $0 +3%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 29 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $2 $0 -13%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $4 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Sep 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 13 $24 $0 +1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $1 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Sep 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Sep 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? Sep 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $5 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 08 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $34 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $34 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $33 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $2 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $33 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $9 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $24 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $32 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $33 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $33 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $9 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $24 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $22 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $24 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $9 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $0 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $26 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $35 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $36 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $36 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $7 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $19 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.60 · official $37.60 (match) · 138 history records