Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:14:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9cc…82e7 other 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-2%) realized +$0 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$5
politics 28% −$1
sports 4% +$3
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.5% -10.9% 43% 29% -10.7%
≤30d 19 -8.2% -16.9% 58% 26% -14.7%
≤90d 19 -8.2% -16.9% 58% 26% -14.7%
all 19 -8.2% -16.9% 58% 26% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 26% -14.7%
10% -24.9% 16% -22.9%
15% -32.1% 11% -30.3%
20% -38.8% 11% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions41
Markets (closed)19 / 60
History coverage13d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 64¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Will France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 81¢ 85¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 87¢ 89¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 75¢ 74¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? No 96¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will Argentina win the World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 71¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Viking win Norway Eliteserien? Yes 45¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $4 +$3 +70%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 +$4 +276%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $4 −$3 -95%
Will Norway be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 23 $1 $0 +6%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 23 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 +5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 +28%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $1 $0 -5%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 +12%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 18 $1 $0 +17%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 6h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 7d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 43¢ $1 7d
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 58¢ $3 7d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 81¢ $3 7d
Will Argentina win the World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 78¢ $1 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 7d
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $1 7d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 70¢ $1 7d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 7d
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 34¢ $0 7d
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL No 35¢ $0 7d
Will France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $2 7d
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $2 7d
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $2 7d
Will France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $1 7d
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $1 7d
Will Los Angeles FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY Yes $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.14 · official $80.32 (match) · 109 history records