Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:25:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B9 0xb9cc…6ab7 other 26 markets active 6h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$15
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$31
sports 25% +$33
world 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +11.7% +1.0% 54% 50% -14.5%
≤30d 25 +17.5% +6.3% 56% 52% -8.8%
≤90d 25 +17.5% +6.3% 56% 52% -8.8%
all 26 +17.1% +5.9% 58% 50% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 50% -8.7%
10% -4.2% 42% -17.4%
15% -13.5% 35% -25.4%
20% -22.0% 35% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage171d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $9 −$8 -90%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $13 +$16 +122%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 +$9 +83%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$12 +114%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$13 +129%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $4 +$10 +216%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$21 +414%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$17 +158%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Mar 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 22¢ $11 7h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $10 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes $1 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 61¢ $9 9h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 11h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 75¢ $10 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 34h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No $5 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 47h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $26 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 2d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 2d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $10 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records