Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:36:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9cc…744a weather 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$99 (-4%) realized −$102 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate33%24W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$21
14 days−$100
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.0% -14.1% 75% 25% -6.3%
≤30d 49 +4.9% -5.1% 43% 33% -14.2%
≤90d 73 -17.2% -25.1% 33% 26% -15.0%
all 73 -17.2% -25.1% 33% 26% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 26% -15.0%
10% -32.3% 23% -23.1%
15% -38.8% 18% -30.6%
20% -44.8% 16% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$305
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses24 / 49
Open positions8
Markets (closed)73 / 81
History coverage52d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? No 95¢ 93¢ $216 $212 −$5 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? Yes 35¢ 51¢ $23 $33 +$10 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? Yes 28¢ 25¢ $23 $20 −$2 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? No 88¢ 80¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 28? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $9 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 28? Yes 22¢ 27¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 28? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $4 −$2 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $416 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $33 +$11 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $142 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$6 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $25 −$15 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$44 +614%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$3 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$59 +480%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $22 −$11 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $131 −$101 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 14 $145 −$145 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $243 +$52 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$12 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $139 +$27 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 12 $22 −$21 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $142 +$43 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$3 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $44 −$6 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 3? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 2? Jun 02 $23 −$22 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $8 +$22 +266%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $15 −$10 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or below on May 31? May 31 $9 +$8 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 2? May 31 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 1? May 31 $6 −$4 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 1? May 31 $19 −$19 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 31? May 31 $15 −$12 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 31? May 31 $19 +$11 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 31? May 31 $13 −$10 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 30? May 30 $10 +$23 +224%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 30? May 30 $15 −$12 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 29? May 30 $11 +$19 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $4 +$6 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 29? May 28 $3 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 29? May 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? BUY No 84¢ $7 21m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 32m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 32m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $54 35m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? BUY No 91¢ $7 36m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $163 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 27? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 28? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 27? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 27? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 27? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? SELL No 98¢ $138 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? SELL No 98¢ $88 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? SELL No 98¢ $169 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 19¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 19¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? SELL No 86¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? SELL No 86¢ $16 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? SELL No 86¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 41¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 42¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.64 · official $301.48 · 307 history records