Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9cd…d235 weather 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate63%79W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% −$13
other 11% +$5
world 2% +$2
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 123 -36.2% -42.3% 63% 0% -10.1%
all 125 -35.5% -41.6% 63% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.6% 0% -9.9%
10% -47.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -52.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -57.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -71% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses79 / 46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage92d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? Jun 01 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 20? Apr 28 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on April 20? Apr 28 $10 $0 -1%
Will 60-69 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 Apr 21 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 20 Apr 21 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 20? Apr 21 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on April 20? Apr 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on Apri Apr 21 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on April 19? Apr 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 62°F or higher on April 19? Apr 20 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 65°F or below on April 19? Apr 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 69°F or below on April 19? Apr 20 $13 $0 -2%
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win fewer than 75 seats in the 2026 Bul Apr 19 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri Apr 19 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on April 18? Apr 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 18? Apr 19 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 19? Apr 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 17 Apr 19 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 18? Apr 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 17? Apr 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on April 17 Apr 18 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 17? Apr 18 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 17? Apr 18 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on April 18? Apr 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on April 17? Apr 18 $12 $0 -1%
Will Mi, socialisti! (Mi!) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? Apr 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 16? Apr 17 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 16? Apr 17 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 16? Apr 17 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 16? Apr 17 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on April 15? Apr 17 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 16? Apr 17 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 15? Apr 16 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 15? Apr 16 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 15? Apr 16 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 15? Apr 15 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 14? Apr 15 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 14? Apr 15 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 47°F or below on April 14? Apr 15 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 14? Apr 15 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 14? Apr 15 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on April 13? Apr 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 13? Apr 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ap Apr 14 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 14? Apr 14 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 13? Apr 14 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on April 13? Apr 14 $13 $0 -1%
Will Bárður á Steig Nielsen be the next Løgmaður of the Faroe Islands Apr 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 11? Apr 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 12? Apr 13 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? BUY No 100¢ $75 20d
Will 60-69 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 SELL No 100¢ $12 58d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on Apri BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 60d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $13 60d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 60d
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 60d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on Apri BUY No 99¢ $14 60d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 20 BUY No 99¢ $12 60d
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win fewer than 75 seats in the 2026 Bul SELL No 100¢ $13 60d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 69°F or below on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 69°F or below on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $13 60d
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 65°F or below on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win fewer than 75 seats in the 2026 Bul BUY No 97¢ $13 61d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 62°F or higher on April 19? BUY No 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 61d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 62°F or higher on April 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 61d
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 61d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 65°F or below on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 61d
Will 60-69 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 BUY No 91¢ $11 61d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 320 history records