Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B9 0xb9ce…1277 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$388per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$2
crypto 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage6d
Avg bet$388
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $302 $302 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $320 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $470 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $272 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $482 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $302 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $320 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $320 24h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $470 24h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $470 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $272 3d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $481 3d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $482 4d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $481 4d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $482 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.85 · official $301.85 (match) · 16 history records