Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:36:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B9 0xb9d2…0cbd other 571 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-1%) realized −$58 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%261W / 302L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$96
14 days+$95
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$182
sports 16% +$66
crypto 4% +$21
world 1% −$9
weather 1% −$19
politics 0% −$1
culture 0% −$3
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +9.2% -1.2% 60% 56% +2.4%
≤30d 28 +2.6% -7.1% 57% 54% +2.1%
≤90d 43 -7.2% -16.1% 51% 49% -5.4%
all 563 +2.0% -7.7% 46% 43% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 43% -12.0%
10% -16.5% 38% -20.5%
15% -24.6% 33% -28.2%
20% -32.0% 25% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses261 / 302
Open positions7
Markets (closed)563 / 571
History coverage141d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 563 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+35%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-35%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $76 −$58 -76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$26 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $140 +$14 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$41 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 +$36 +60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$6 -27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +54%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$9 +30%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $33 +$17 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 −$4 -12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$12 -61%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$12 -61%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +206%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +44%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $10 −$6 -57%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $19 +$4 +19%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $12 +$7 +59%
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $4 +$3 +86%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $2 +$2 +129%
Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-03-19? Mar 24 $13 −$13 -100%
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Utah Valley Wolverines Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $8 −$8 -96%
Will AZ win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $5 +$8 +180%
Bradley Braves vs. Dayton Flyers Mar 19 $1 +$1 +75%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Mar 19 $3 +$4 +121%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $4 $0 +9%
Will AEK win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $32 −$28 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 13m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $75 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $50 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 98¢ $154 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $140 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $142 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $97 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 98¢ $6 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $15 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $39 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $40 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 71¢ $31 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.24 · official $25.33 (match) · 1355 history records