Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
B9 0xb9d4…9002 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,298 (+28%) realized +$2,989 · open −$691
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$749now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,130
7 days+$3,185
14 days+$3,650
30 days+$3,656
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$3,457
other 24% −$475
sports 9% +$9
politics 9% +$40
crypto 5% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +117.6% +96.9% 100% 88% +80.0%
≤30d 37 +25.3% +13.4% 57% 49% +41.2%
≤90d 37 +25.3% +13.4% 57% 49% +41.2%
all 37 +25.3% +13.4% 57% 49% +41.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.4% 49% +41.2%
10% +2.6% 41% +27.7%
15% -7.4% 38% +15.3%
20% -16.4% 30% +4.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$202 vs −$37 · ×5.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.22 per $1 lost it wins $7.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$749
Realized+$2,989
Unrealized−$691
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)37 / 43
History coverage26d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $297 $232 −$65 (-22%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 29¢ 17¢ $319 $187 −$132 (-41%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $175 $141 −$34 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $137 $98 −$38 (-28%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? No 47¢ 11¢ $212 $50 −$162 (-76%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $300 $41 −$259 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $1,058 +$834 +79%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $464 +$296 +64%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$258 +258%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $392 +$371 +95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $398 +$419 +105%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $332 +$340 +102%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $282 +$659 +233%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 14 $192 +$8 +4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 13 $424 +$14 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $152 +$55 +36%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $98 +$206 +210%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $106 −$105 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $307 +$33 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $106 +$327 +310%
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 07 $250 −$15 -6%
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 05 $36 −$10 -26%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 05 $20 −$4 -20%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $101 +$45 +45%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $101 −$67 -67%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $102 +$137 +134%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 04 $35 −$35 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $9 −$8 -84%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $43 +$19 +46%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $254 +$78 +31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $90 −$12 -13%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $51 −$11 -21%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $100 +$15 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $56 −$55 -98%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? May 31 $509 +$32 +6%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $31 +$5 +15%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $20 −$20 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $50 −$41 -83%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $51 +$92 +181%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $498 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $500 2h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $1,394 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $171 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $234 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $140 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $760 17h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $290 23h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $14 23h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $15 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $109 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $2 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $2 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $2 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $10 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $7 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $2 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $1 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $1 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $1 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $1 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $1 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $1 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $1 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $749.03 · official $749.17 (match) · 285 history records