Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9d7…fcbb sports 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate49%26W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$17
other 14% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -6.7% -15.6% 49% 9% -11.7%
≤30d 53 -6.7% -15.6% 49% 9% -11.7%
≤90d 53 -6.7% -15.6% 49% 9% -11.7%
all 53 -6.7% -15.6% 49% 9% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 9% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 6% -20.2%
15% -31.0% 4% -27.9%
20% -37.8% 2% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses26 / 27
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage6d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $36 −$6 -18%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? Jun 19 $5 $0 -6%
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $80 $0 -0%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $7 $0 -2%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $177 +$3 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $17 −$1 -3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$4 +20%
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Will US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -10%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $45 −$9 -21%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 +$2 +11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $35 +$1 +4%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$4 -25%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $48 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $12 −$1 -4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $12 −$1 -12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$2 -13%
Will Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -76%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $14 $0 -1%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 −$4 -53%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $7 −$6 -82%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $7 −$1 -10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $14 −$1 -9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $63 $0 +0%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 $0 -1%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 $0 -2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $7 +$2 +29%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 +$1 +6%
Will CD Concepción vs. CD Limache end in a draw? Jun 14 $43 −$16 -38%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 +$12 +83%
Will CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $22 +$9 +41%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $7 $0 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -64%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $21 −$6 -27%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 81¢ $30 1h
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $12 1h
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $12 1h
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $12 1h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 71¢ $5 2h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 2h
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $80 3h
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $80 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $20 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 97¢ $4 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 97¢ $16 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 90¢ $7 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 91¢ $7 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $40 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $20 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $20 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $20 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 96¢ $20 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $40 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $20 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $20 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 88¢ $20 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $20 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 69¢ $32 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 73¢ $9 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $8 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $19 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $15 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $15 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records