Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:05:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9d7…5946 crypto 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,281 (-10%) realized −$1,788 · open −$493
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%33W / 69L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$7,071now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$158
7 days−$184
14 days−$185
30 days−$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$826
sports 12% −$1,926
crypto 8% +$125
culture 5% +$215
world 1% −$84
politics 0% −$35
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -24.9% -32.1% 0% 0% -24.1%
≤30d 8 -50.5% -55.3% 0% 0% -26.0%
≤90d 15 -33.3% -39.7% 20% 20% -26.0%
all 102 -11.8% -20.2% 32% 27% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 27% -22.5%
10% -27.9% 24% -29.9%
15% -34.8% 19% -36.7%
20% -41.2% 14% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$51 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$7,071
Realized−$1,788
Unrealized−$493
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses33 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions7
Markets (closed)102 / 109
History coverage115d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $2,513 $2,789 +$275 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1,994 $1,724 −$271 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,425 $1,181 −$244 (-17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $750 $772 +$22 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $392 $412 +$19 (+5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $210 $194 −$16 (-7%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $279 $0 −$279 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $171 −$10 -6%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $793 −$128 -16%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $34 −$20 -60%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $138 −$25 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $143 −$140 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $713 −$33 -5%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? May 28 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 18 $4 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 12 $3 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 12 $3 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 12 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 04 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 04 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 19 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 19 $3 $0 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Mar 19 $30 −$3 -9%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Mar 19 $32 −$11 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 19 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 19 $9 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 19 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 19 $6 −$4 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 19 $4 +$14 +339%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 19 $30 −$8 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 19 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 19 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $2,190 +$71 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 18 $23 +$14 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 18 $5 $0 -9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $200 +$401 +200%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 17 $50 −$15 -30%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 16 $40 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 16 $35 +$14 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 16 $10 +$5 +55%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $799 +$340 +43%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $37 −$23 -61%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $193 −$39 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 15 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 15 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $185 −$14 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 15 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 15 $120 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 15 $50 −$12 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 32m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $306 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $187 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $131 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $141 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $138 14h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $36 32h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $216 32h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $239 32h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $98 32h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $128 32h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $14 33h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $34 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $33 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $158 4d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $48 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $109 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $134 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $132 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $484 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $170 10d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $163 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $468 20d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $248 20d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $91 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $99 24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $143 25d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 53¢ $143 25d
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,071.11 · official $7,071.11 (match) · 360 history records