Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:25:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9d8…f8af other 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,898 (-1%) realized −$1,898 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate15%24W / 140L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,344per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$812now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$16
14 days−$108
30 days−$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$101
other 39% −$1,661
sports 16% −$171
economics 2% −$4
culture 2% −$5
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 56 -5.4% -14.4% 11% 5% -9.9%
≤90d 116 -3.2% -12.4% 8% 5% -10.4%
all 164 -2.8% -12.1% 15% 10% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 10% -10.3%
10% -20.5% 10% -18.9%
15% -28.2% 9% -26.7%
20% -35.2% 7% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,904) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$22 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$812
Realized−$1,898
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses24 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,344
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $812 $812 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,994 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $2,591 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,859 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,123 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $3,627 −$4 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $682 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $113 +$2 +2%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,627 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $682 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,445 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $4,554 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $4,735 −$6 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $4,379 −$4 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $539 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $67 −$67 -100%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,638 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $713 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $81 +$62 +76%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $1,285 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $650 −$1 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $674 −$1 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $77 −$77 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $134 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $253 +$1 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,696 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $1,806 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $935 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,572 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $217 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $250 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,956 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,987 −$3 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 25 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $316 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $247 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $813 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $833 18h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $834 19h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $818 19h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $819 21h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $812 25h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $813 27h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $684 43h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $685 44h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $682 44h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $683 46h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $315 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $315 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $753 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $754 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $681 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $682 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $681 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $682 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $683 7d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $684 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $681 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $682 8d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $652 9d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $653 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $656 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $657 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $603 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $604 9d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $501 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $812.02 · official $812.02 (match) · 517 history records