Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B9 0xb9e8…afdb sports 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-11%) realized −$38 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 188d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$31
crypto 9% −$10
other 8% +$16
world 3% −$10
economics 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-43.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -23.6% -30.9% 46% 35% -8.2%
≤30d 26 -23.6% -30.9% 46% 35% -8.2%
≤90d 26 -23.6% -30.9% 46% 35% -8.2%
all 32 -37.0% -43.0% 38% 28% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.0% 28% -20.2%
10% -48.4% 25% -27.8%
15% -53.4% 25% -34.8%
20% -58.0% 22% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)32 / 44
History coverage188d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 80¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+39%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 59¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+73%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 74¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Over 58¢ 41¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Over 32¢ 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 29¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +52%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $100 +$8 +8%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 +$2 +17%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +55%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$2 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Dec 14 $23 −$9 -39%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 3 Winner Dec 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Dec 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Dec 14 $6 −$4 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 13¢ $1 24m
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 25m
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 25m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 41¢ $1 31m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 53¢ $2 59m
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $109 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 1h
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $3 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 95¢ $100 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $16 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 3h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.25 · official $38.69 (match) · 83 history records