Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B9 0xb9e8…3817 crypto 1554 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 125d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate90%1396W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
other 0% $0
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 427 +0.8% -8.8% 89% 43% -10.4%
≤30d 429 +0.8% -8.8% 89% 42% -10.4%
≤90d 643 +1.4% -8.3% 88% 57% -9.3%
all 1555 +0.5% -9.1% 90% 24% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 24% -9.9%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.5%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1396 / 159
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1555 / 1554
History coverage126d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1555 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? No 94¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +14%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 39m
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY No 94¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.31 · official $2.32 (match) · 3500 history records