Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9ec…0d2a crypto 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$347 (-3%) realized −$347 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate58%63W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$214
14 days−$292
30 days−$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$302
sports 5% −$3
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -6.4% -15.3% 90% 10% -6.8%
≤30d 108 -15.9% -23.9% 58% 31% -12.0%
≤90d 109 -16.7% -24.6% 58% 30% -12.1%
all 109 -16.7% -24.6% 58% 30% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 30% -12.1%
10% -31.8% 20% -20.5%
15% -38.4% 15% -28.2%
20% -44.5% 9% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$347
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses63 / 46
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)109 / 109
History coverage78d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 109 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $385 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $391 +$19 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $387 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $380 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $375 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $371 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $350 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $360 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $331 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $340 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $302 +$36 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $271 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $271 +$19 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $264 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $242 +$22 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $250 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $240 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $240 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $202 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $201 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $7 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $9 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 08 $45 −$15 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $46 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 08 $42 +$5 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $385 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $391 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $387 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $380 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $375 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $371 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $350 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $360 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $331 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $340 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $302 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $241 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $271 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $260 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $242 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $250 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $240 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $240 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $202 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 348 history records