Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:30:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

B9 0xb9ee…8c9c politics 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 362d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$5,317 (-19%) realized −$5,018 · open −$299

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate53%8W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,748per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit69%portable

Net worth$4,550now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+5.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	15	+17.0%	+5.9%	53%	33%	-24.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.9%	33%	-24.2%
10%	-4.3%	27%	-31.5%
15%	-13.5%	27%	-38.1%
20%	-22.0%	20%	-44.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 68% · top 2 90% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

38% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +47% → late -9% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$263 vs −$685 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.44 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage

Net worth$4,550

Realized−$5,018

Unrealized−$299

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses8 / 7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 16

History coverage362d

Avg bet$1,748

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	62¢	58¢	$4,849	$4,550	−$299 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files?	Dec 20	$673	−$673	-100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	Dec 19	$94	+$33	+36%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?	Nov 25	$85	+$9	+11%
Will Trump say "Pope" in November?	Nov 25	$49	+$35	+72%
Will Trump say the "N word" in November?	Nov 20	$553	+$42	+8%
Will Trump say "Peanut" in November?	Nov 16	$2,696	−$2,649	-98%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Nov 02	$2,670	−$21	-1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 1?	Nov 02	$2,614	+$56	+2%
NYC Election: Sliwa drops out and Cuomo wins?	Nov 01	$2,588	+$26	+1%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October?	Oct 29	$84	+$470	+560%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	Oct 28	$126	−$42	-33%
Will England win on 2025-10-14?	Oct 14	$2	−$2	-80%
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?	Jul 08	$1,328	−$1,001	-75%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	Jun 26	$2,629	+$1,429	+54%
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?	Jun 26	$408	−$408	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY Yes	62¢	$4,849	1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	SELL No	39¢	$4,849	1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	50¢	$3,909	25h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	55¢	$2,220	31h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	54¢	$390	31h
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files?	BUY No	75¢	$47	180d
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files?	BUY No	79¢	$40	181d
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files?	BUY No	69¢	$20	181d
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files?	BUY No	68¢	$20	181d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	SELL No	84¢	$127	181d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	BUY No	62¢	$94	205d
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?	SELL Yes	30¢	$85	205d
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?	SELL Yes	30¢	$9	205d
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?	BUY Yes	27¢	$85	205d
Will Trump say "Pope" in November?	SELL No	62¢	$85	205d
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files?	BUY No	77¢	$545	210d
Will Trump say the "N word" in November?	SELL No	96¢	$545	210d
Will Trump say "Pope" in November?	BUY No	36¢	$49	218d
Will Trump say the "N word" in November?	SELL No	88¢	$49	218d
Will Trump say "Peanut" in November?	BUY No	66¢	$958	227d
Will Trump say "Peanut" in November?	SELL Yes	38¢	$46	227d
Will Trump say "Peanut" in November?	BUY Yes	55¢	$66	227d
Will Trump say "Peanut" in November?	BUY No	51¢	$16	227d
Will Trump say "Peanut" in November?	BUY No	54¢	$328	228d
Will Trump say "Peanut" in November?	BUY No	57¢	$1,327	228d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	SELL Yes	94¢	$1,622	228d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	SELL Yes	93¢	$1,028	228d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	BUY Yes	94¢	$2,670	228d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 1?	BUY No	98¢	$2,614	229d
NYC Election: Sliwa drops out and Cuomo wins?	SELL No	100¢	$2,614	229d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,550.26 · official $4,550.26 (match) · 52 history records