Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:48:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B9 0xb9f0…dc0a crypto 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized +$1,696 · open −$1,708
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate52%82W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6,931
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +29.2% +16.9% 50% 50% +61.1%
≤30d 44 -0.6% -10.0% 66% 30% +22.5%
≤90d 159 -24.4% -31.6% 52% 13% -36.5%
all 159 -24.4% -31.6% 52% 13% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 13% -36.5%
10% -38.1% 8% -42.5%
15% -44.1% 6% -48.1%
20% -49.6% 6% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$88 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$2,405
Realized+$1,696
Unrealized−$1,708
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses82 / 77
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage54d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 12¢ 4¢ $2,656 $948 −$1,708 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $323 +$1,085 +336%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $193 −$182 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $296 −$279 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $12 +$19 +166%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$30 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $27 +$34 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 27 $120 +$140 +117%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$42 +170%
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$24 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $19 −$19 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? Jun 02 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 8? Jun 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 14? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? Jun 02 $7 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? Jun 02 $12 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? Jun 02 $9 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 9? Jun 02 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 12? Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 12? Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? Jun 02 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? Jun 02 $14 +$3 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 12? Jun 02 $16 +$2 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 13? Jun 02 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 13? Jun 02 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? Jun 02 $21 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? Jun 02 $22 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? Jun 02 $16 +$12 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 12? Jun 02 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? Jun 02 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $181 +$8 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $59 −$3 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $143 −$47 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? Jun 02 $9 −$3 -30%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 02 $94 −$24 -26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? Jun 02 $380 −$195 -51%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $172 −$61 -35%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $341 −$80 -24%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 7? May 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 9? May 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 4-10? May 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 10? May 12 $13 +$2 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 11? May 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 12 $24 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $81 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $82 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $82 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $96 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $45 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $70 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $86 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $96 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $32 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $58 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $69 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $77 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $81 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $81 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $7 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $24 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $22 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $12 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $13 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $30 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $64 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,405.16 · official $2,406.77 (match) · 1525 history records