trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 50% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +3.5% | -6.4% | 50% | 17% | -8.2% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 44% | 11% | -8.5% |
| all | 25 | -3.1% | -12.3% | 36% | 4% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.3% | 4% | -9.1% |
| 10% | -20.7% | 0% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -28.4% | 0% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -35.4% | 0% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $42 | $42 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 23 | $41 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 23 | $38 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 27 | $2 | $0 | +15% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 26 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 26 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 25 | $38 | +$2 | +5% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 24 | $34 | +$2 | +6% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 23 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 21 | $16 | −$2 | -10% |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Dec 29 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe | Jun 24 | $18 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? | Jun 12 | $6 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Solana dip to $100 in June? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 11 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? | Jun 10 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 10 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? | Jun 09 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 | Jun 09 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $10 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will TikTok be banned again before May? | Apr 15 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? | Apr 13 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | Apr 12 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Ethereum all time high by June 30? | Apr 11 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 07 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Mount St. Mary's s vs. Duke | Mar 22 | $11 | $0 | +2% |