Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9f4…2ac0 politics 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 376d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate10%8W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$5
other 28% −$1
sports 17% −$1
culture 5% $0
economics 5% −$2
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -21.2% -28.7% 67% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 8 -8.0% -16.8% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 -8.0% -16.8% 38% 0% -9.4%
all 77 -6.4% -15.4% 10% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 1% -9.7%
10% -23.5% 1% -18.3%
15% -30.8% 1% -26.2%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

376d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses8 / 69
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage376d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $78 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $76 +$4 +6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $76 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $5 −$3 -70%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $73 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $74 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $149 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $78 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 24 $78 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $79 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $77 +$1 +1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $80 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 23 $79 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $83 −$1 -1%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $156 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 15 $79 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $80 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $164 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $77 $0 -0%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Dec 29 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 27 $76 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 26 $76 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 25 $1 $0 -10%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $84 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 25 $153 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 23 $163 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 22 $78 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 19 $81 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 17 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 12 $161 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30? Dec 06 $79 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 04 $163 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 01 $150 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 01 $85 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 25 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 24 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $59 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 22 $2 $0 -17%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $79 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 17 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 17 $1 $0 -17%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 08 $83 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 07 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 04 $81 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 01 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 22 $1 $0 -10%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 15 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 13 $168 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 12 $81 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $78 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $76 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $76 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 0¢ $0 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 0¢ $0 8d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $72 8d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 1¢ $0 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 1¢ $0 11d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 11d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 13d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 1¢ $0 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $71 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $72 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 2¢ $5 17d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $77 17d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $78 22d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $80 115d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $78 118d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $78 133d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $79 141d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $79 142d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $77 146d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $78 147d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $78 149d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $79 150d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $79 152d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $77 152d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $77 154d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $77 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.49 · official $77.49 (match) · 327 history records