Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9f7…290a other 20 markets active 6h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$41 (-16%) realized −$39 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$35
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$13
other 47% −$51
politics 6% −$15
sports 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +53.1% +38.5% 20% 20% -42.5%
≤30d 10 +53.1% +38.5% 20% 20% -42.5%
≤90d 17 +16.2% +5.1% 35% 24% -25.6%
all 17 +16.2% +5.1% 35% 24% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.1% 24% -25.6%
10% -4.9% 6% -32.7%
15% -14.1% 6% -39.2%
20% -22.5% 6% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage41d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $12 −$3 (-17%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$11 +1116%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$21 -98%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 14 $16 $0 -1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 11 $13 +$2 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $26 +$4 +16%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $13 −$13 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $17 +$3 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $57 +$3 +6%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $9 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $2 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 31h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 31h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 32h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $16 3d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $19 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $15 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 6d
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 34d
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 34d
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 88¢ $9 35d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 63¢ $13 36d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $16 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.85 · official $32.85 (match) · 84 history records