Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:29:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9f9…a636 other 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 225L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$26
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$37
sports 24% −$17
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$8
economics 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$3
world 4% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)237 / 237
History coverage128d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 237 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $218 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $429 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $198 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $312 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $239 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $317 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $413 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $182 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $375 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $248 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $170 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $516 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $231 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $187 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $181 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $522 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $315 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $131 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $368 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 09 $282 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $255 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $308 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $365 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $415 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $183 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 05 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $368 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $198 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 1h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 2h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 8h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 10h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $49 14h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 15h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $33 15h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 17h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 19h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 23h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 24h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 26h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 27h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 30h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 32h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $50 36h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $50 38h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 45h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 46h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1351 history records