Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb9fb…670c world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 378d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate30%8W / 19L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$1
other 38% +$2
politics 3% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.6% -13.7% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 9 -1.5% -10.9% 11% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -1.5% -10.9% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 27 +0.8% -8.8% 30% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 4% -9.4%
10% -17.5% 4% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 4% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

378d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses8 / 19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage378d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 91¢ 91¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $40 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 08 $47 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $131 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Dec 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 04 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 21 $1 $0 -29%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jun 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 17 $22 $0 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $39 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes $7 34h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $9 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $28 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $47 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $47 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $47 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $21 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $21 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $7 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $11 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $32 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $46 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $47 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $47 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $29 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $29 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $16 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $16 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $32 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.82 · official $39.38 (match) · 93 history records