Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:33:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xba01…1a89 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 568d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$223 (-5%) realized −$261 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days−$427
14 days−$78
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$91
crypto 7% −$350
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -22.6% -30.0% 44% 33% -23.0%
≤30d 16 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 44% -8.4%
≤90d 16 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 44% -8.4%
all 17 -8.4% -17.1% 47% 41% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 41% -15.6%
10% -25.1% 35% -23.7%
15% -32.3% 35% -31.0%
20% -38.9% 35% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$187 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

568d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized−$261
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage568d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Ilbirs eSports 66¢ 76¢ $239 $277 +$38 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 29 $26 +$5 +19%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 29 $214 −$214 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P Jun 28 $140 +$85 +61%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $808 −$629 -78%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $200 −$175 -88%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 24 $56 −$53 -96%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $720 +$533 +74%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $391 +$34 +9%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $304 −$13 -4%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 20 $265 +$304 +115%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $182 −$182 -100%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $131 +$195 +149%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Estar Backs (+1.5) Jun 16 $167 +$100 +60%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $197 −$31 -16%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $249 +$131 +53%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NBC interview? Jan 23 $350 −$350 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL summer bear 77¢ $31 1h
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Ilbirs eSports 67¢ $25 12h
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Ilbirs eSports 66¢ $200 12h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $226 12h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Inner Circle Esports 61¢ $140 14h
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY summer bear 64¢ $26 14h
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Ilbirs eSports 65¢ $16 14h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 13¢ $14 15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 36¢ $179 16h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 35¢ $20 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 33¢ $185 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 37¢ $191 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Team Bald 23¢ $179 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 53¢ $203 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 53¢ $229 2d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner SELL GG Boom 5¢ $25 3d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner BUY GG Boom 40¢ $48 3d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner BUY GG Boom 40¢ $150 3d
Dota 2: GG Boom vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner BUY GG Boom 40¢ $2 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe SELL Power Rangers 0¢ $3 4d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Power Rangers 4¢ $56 4d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $1,253 4d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 60¢ $395 4d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 53¢ $326 4d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 67¢ $0 4d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 66¢ $425 4d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $391 5d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL Rune Eaters 57¢ $291 5d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 58¢ $304 6d
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 7¢ $36 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.17 · official $277.17 (match) · 47 history records