Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba04…216f world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 326d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$3
other 24% +$2
politics 15% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% −$2
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 10% -8.3%
≤90d 10 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 10% -8.3%
all 30 +1.0% -8.6% 47% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 3% -9.1%
10% -17.3% 3% -17.8%
15% -25.3% 3% -25.7%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

326d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage326d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $94 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $47 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $60 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $3 +$1 +39%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $44 +$1 +1%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 5 at 5 Aug 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 10 $42 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Syria by July 31? Aug 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 30 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 28 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 27 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $50 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $39 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $39 7h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $45 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $45 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $27 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $50 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $50 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $50 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $48 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $48 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $47 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $15 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $15 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $9 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $36 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $46 20d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 99¢ $45 20d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $44 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.61 · official $49.61 (match) · 75 history records