Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:50:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba0b…7278 other 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,486 (-26%) realized +$120 · open −$2,606
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$947now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days−$101
14 days−$101
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 43% −$2,493
world 28% +$350
politics 16% −$385
other 12% −$53
sports 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +38.3% +25.1% 88% 88% -31.0%
≤30d 12 +64.2% +48.5% 83% 83% -18.3%
≤90d 35 +1.2% -8.5% 54% 49% -9.2%
all 36 +1.1% -8.5% 53% 47% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 47% -9.2%
10% -17.2% 36% -17.9%
15% -25.2% 33% -25.8%
20% -32.6% 22% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$64 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$947
Realized+$120
Unrealized−$2,606
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions24
Markets (closed)36 / 60
History coverage101d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Yes 64¢ 5¢ $2,530 $198 −$2,332 (-92%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 55¢ $159 $164 +$4 (+3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $145 $146 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $65 $65 −$1 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $48 $52 +$4 (+9%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 25¢ 14¢ $88 $47 −$41 (-47%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $41 $44 +$3 (+8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $12 −$38 (-75%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 31¢ 18¢ $22 $12 −$9 (-44%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $6 $4 −$3 (-40%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 57¢ 2¢ $114 $4 −$110 (-97%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $36 $2 −$34 (-95%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$6 (-87%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $27 $1 −$26 (-97%)
Will Donald Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+161%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 69¢ 3¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $286 −$165 -58%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$13 +55%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 +$4 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $75 +$34 +45%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 +$6 +48%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $13 +$4 +32%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 8? Jun 09 $20 +$20 +100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $0 +$2 +400%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? Jun 04 $61 +$39 +64%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? May 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $23 −$23 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 13 $40 +$18 +44%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $226 −$221 -98%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 11 $73 −$70 -96%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $259 −$44 -17%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $525 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $274 −$55 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 24 $183 +$33 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Apr 19 $468 −$216 -46%
Military action against Iran ends on April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of April 6 2026? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Apr 09 $143 −$36 -25%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Apr 08 $157 −$36 -23%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $130 +$3 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 6? Apr 06 $555 +$225 +40%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 04 $250 +$10 +4%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 04 $684 +$117 +17%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 02 $202 +$113 +56%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 02 $507 +$377 +74%
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? Mar 29 $70 +$16 +22%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Mar 15 $245 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $121 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 4h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $12 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $104 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $103 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $19 19h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $7 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $13 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $11 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $38 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $7 6d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $37 14d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 14d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $946.88 · official $946.88 (match) · 381 history records